Eli Lilly: Oral GLP-1 Physician Survey outlines path to doubling of category; Buy LLY

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Eli Lilly: Oral GLP-1 Physician Survey outlines path to doubling of category; Buy LLY

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Eli Lilly

Oral GLP-1 Physician Survey outlines path

to doubling of category; Buy LLY

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 1,251.00 USD | Price: 1,065.00 USD

Survey & new market model support Buy call on LLY 26 May 2026

We tweak our LLY GLP-1 forecasts & publish our global obesity model, with input from a Equity

recent physician survey. Overall, category growth dynamics look sound, and LLY’s overall

market position remains dominant. We expect LLY’s overall revs and profit growth to be

Key Changeskeyed by doubling of GLP-1 US market sales by 2033, keyed by new product

introductions that can expand the market. LLY is a YTD underperformer (-3% vs. DRG (US$) Previous Current

+2%), despite above-peer 5-yr sales CAGR (15% vs. JNJ 6%), and we’d argue LLY’s Price Obj. 1,133.00 1,251.00

obesity pipe offers promise to extend obesity tail (vs. cons 2036 tirz LOE). We reiterate 2026E Rev (m) 84,714.5 84,172.4

Buy, updated PO of $1,251 on sector re-rate and underappreciated growth outlook. 2027E Rev (m) 97,422.2 98,452.9

2028E Rev (m) 110,570.4 109,814.3

2026E EPS 35.93 35.70Broad GLP-1 categ. growing, Zep not cannibalized

Survey data reinforce an expanding GLP-1 market with meaningful upside for LLY, aided 2027E EPS 45.34 46.32

by oral adoption. Category penetration is expected to increase, docs projecting ~78% of 2028E EPS 53.67 53.29

obese GLP-1 treated in three years vs. ~56% currently, on better penetration and 2026E EBITDA (m) 42,294.0 42,019.6

broadening use. New oral GLP-1’s — LLY’s Foundayo—are expected to unlock demand 2027E EBITDA (m) 52,374.7 53,477.6

with 65%/30% of respondents expecting moderate to significant increase in prescribing, 2028E EBITDA (m) 61,102.9 60,669.8