Guizhou Chanhen (002895 CH) Buy: Remains resilient amid sulphur inflation pressure

研报英文原文证据摘录

Guizhou Chanhen (002895 CH) Buy: Remains resilient amid sulphur inflation pressure

26 May 2026

Equity Research Report

Guizhou Chanhen (002895 CH) EquitiesChemicals

Buy: Remains resilient amid sulphur inflation pressure China

◆ Rock and HF drive volume growth; optimised mix shift MAINTAIN BUY

partially offset sulphur inflation; dividend supports valuation

TARGET PRICE (CNY) PREVIOUS TARGET (CNY)

◆ …leading to resilience in 2026e, despite 1Q26 miss

49.00 50.30

◆ Maintain Buy and lower TP to RMB49.00 (from RMB50.30)

SHARE PRICE (CNY) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

Incremental contribution from rock and HF. In 2026e, we expect Chanhen’s volume 32.31 +51.7%

growth to be primary driven by the phosphate rock capacity expansion of 300ktpa, which (as of 21 May 2026)

could contribute RMB100m-plus in net profit. Meanwhile, following the commissioning

MARKET DATA

of its hydrofluoric acid (HF) capacity, we estimate that HF output could increase by Market cap (CNYm) 19,577 Free float 100%

12kt in 2026e. As rising sulphur prices have increased the cost of sulphur-based HF Market cap (USDm) 2,878 BBG 002895 CH

3m ADTV (USDm) 69 RIC 002895.SZ

and driven sustained price increases, we expect Chanhen’s HF to achieve both

volume and margin expansion this year as a by-product of its phosphoric acid production. FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (CNY)

In the medium term, we believe HF output could continue to increase in line with Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

phosphoric acid expansion, providing a stable medium- to long-term profit contribution. HSBC QH EPS 2.19 2.12 2.90 3.19 HSBC QH EPS prev 2.19 2.09 2.96 3.22

Change (%) 0.0 1.1 -2.1 -0.7

Optimised production mix to partially offset sulphur inflation. Amid persistent Consensus EPS 2.16 2.46 2.95 3.33