How to Think About GRALs Data Readouts Heading Into ASCO

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How to Think About GRALs Data Readouts Heading Into ASCO

C O M PA N Y N O T E

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GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL) Neutral

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$67.19

GRAIL is set to present granular datasets from its pivotal trials at ASCO 2026 (NHS-Galleri TARGET: US$56.00

on May 30; PATHFINDER 2 on May 31). While the datasets are the first in the MCED space, Valuation: We assign a PT of $56 to GRAL

we do not anticipate a material impact on the stock price given that topline data is based off of an 11.3x EV/Sales multiple on our

already public. Similarly, this new data should not affect the PMA approval process, which 2027E revenue estimate and 40.6M diluted

remains anchored to an already submitted package. That said, there are key data points shares.

we are looking for in the full data that would make us more constructive; below, we shape

David Westenberg, CFAup our expectations for both PATHFINDER-2 and NHS Galleri ahead of this weekend. Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

727 281-6589, david.westenberg@psc.com

• PATHFINDER-2 (LBA10509): For the full 35,000-participant dataset, success is defined Karan Patel

by staying consistent with the interim performance and safety profile. We look for Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

approximate confirmation of a ~61.6% PPV, ~73.7% sensitivity in the 12-cancer subset, 727 709-9084, karan.patel@psc.com

and ~92% Cancer Signal Origin (CSO) accuracy. Furthermore, we look for confirmation Skye Gilbert

of a median diagnostic resolution of ~46 days and an invasive procedure rate of <1% Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

646 357-0308, skye.gilbert@psc.com

in non-cancer patients. We do not expect the final data to materially deviate from

the interim 25,000-participant cohort. Changes Previous Current

Rating — Neutral