European Utilities: UK Price cap up 13%, in line with expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

European Utilities: UK Price cap up 13%, in line with expectations

Equity Research

27 May 2026

European Utilities

UK Price cap up 13%, in line with

expectations First Look

UK set price caps July-Sept; with first impact from elevated IBE.MC/IBE SM OVERWEIGHT

POSITIVEgas and power prices. Overall dual-fuel bill up 13%, or £221 to EuropeanEnergy Utilities & Clean

£1,862 like-for-like; albeit Ofgem lowering average household Price Target EUR 22.60

demand estimates reduces to £1,663 level. Increase in line Price (26-May-26) EUR 19.92 Potential Upside/Downside +13.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchwith expectations.

EONGn.DE/EOAN GY EQUAL WEIGHTUK price cap up £221: underlying up 13% to £1,862 for a Direct Debit customer based on

European Utilities & Clean POSITIVE2.7MWh power and 11.5MWh gas consumption. Ofgem have lowered their estimated average Energy

consumption levels to 2.5MWh power and 9.5MWh gas. This reduces the average bill to £1,663, Price Target EUR 19.00

still up 13% like-for-like. Price (26-May-26) EUR 18.58

Potential Upside/Downside +2.3%

The hedging period for the calculation of the price cap includes most of post-Iran Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

disruption; meaning Q4 price caps will unlikely be higher than these Q3 levels. Hedging

observation period for Q3 2026 is Feb 2026 to May 2026 with a weighting towards later months. CNA.L/CNA LN OVERWEIGHT

This means that Q3 prices have broadly reflected the higher gas prices from Iran hostilities. European Utilities & Clean POSITIVE Energy

Price Target GBp 250Overall price cap rise is in line with estimates

Price (26-May-26) GBp 200

Centrica is a core utility holding with a 250p PT and OW rating: we raised its PT in our 13 Potential Upside/Downside +24.9%