Nordic Insurance: Overhang lifted, buy the dip. U/g Sampo to OW

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Nordic Insurance: Overhang lifted, buy the dip. U/g Sampo to OW

Equity Research

27 May 2026

Nordic Insurance

Overhang lifted, buy the dip. U/g

Sampo to OW

With the WC ruling come and gone with limited impact to European Insurance

earnings, supportive underlying fundamentals and continued NEUTRAL Unchanged

growth in the region (Norway in particular), we regard the de- European Insurance

Alessia Magni, CFArating of Nordic insurers as overdone and turn more positive

on the space. We u/g Sampo to OW and GJF to EW. +44alessia.magni@barclays.com(0)20 3555 7393

Barclays, UK

We see scope for re-rating from current depressed levels in the Nordic P&C space after Claudia Gaspari

stocks have de-rated up to double digits since the beginning of the year amid concerns +44 (0)20 3134 6039

around workers comp ruling and fading price tailwind. Now that the ruling is behind us claudia.gaspari@barclays.com

with limited or no impact on earnings or Solvency and still supportive pricing Barclays, UK

environment, in particular in Norway, we see potential for recovery. We upgrade Sampo to

Overweight, as stabilising UK pricing as well as continued robust Nordic top-line growth

imply a consensus EPS upgrade of c. 3%. We also upgrade Gjensidige to Equal Weight, as it

is trading at its historical lowest multiple and strong premium momentum should

increasingly feed into earnings.

Excessive de-rating so far, in our view: We upgrade Sampo to Overweight (from EW) with a

new PT of EUR11 implying 18% potential upside (vs c. 1% sector average). In our view the recent

valuation compression does not reflect underlying fundamentals, with stabilising UK pricing

pointing to potential upside to consensus (c. 3% on UK Private technical result) and robust top-