Australian Resources "Market Impact of Shanxi Incident, & Spot Scenario" Shaw

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Australian Resources "Market Impact of Shanxi Incident, & Spot Scenario" Shaw

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Australian Resources Equities

AustralasiaMarket Impact of Shanxi Incident, & Spot

Scenario Mining

Lachlan Shaw

Analyst

lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

Market Impact of Shanxi Incident; & Spot Scenario +61-3-9242 6387

We consider the impact of the Shanxi coal mine incident, with supply disruption Fintan Collins

potentially tightening met coal markets and lifting prices. To the extent this compresses Associate Analyst

steel mill margins, low grade iron ore discounts could tighten and potentially impact fintan.collins@ubs.com

FMG & MIN over BHP & RIO. In terms of stocks most likely to be impacted, CRN offers +61-3-9242 6179

the highest exposure to metallurgical coal price movements, while WHC may serve as a Dim Ariyasinghe

lower-risk and more liquid way to play. Separately, we update UBS's spot scenario, which Analyst

gauges price momentum should spot prices be maintained. With the Middle East dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

conflict supporting higher aluminum, thermal coal and iron ore (and energy/shipping +61-3-9242 6385

costs), MIN, S32, BHP, AAI, WHC and FMG look sequentially better on spot fair value and Levi Spry

FCF yield. Analyst

levi.spry@ubs.com

Market Impact of Shanxi Incident +61-3-9242 6709

On May 22, a gas explosion struck the Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan, Shanxi, with 247 Al Harvey

workers underground during the incident. At the time of writing, 82 fatalities have been Analyst

confirmed. This incident is likely to influence the met coal market via supply disruptions al.harvey@ubs.com

from increased safety scrutiny, but also through potential regulatory shifts. The +61-3-9242 6071