Clariant AG: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Clariant AG: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Clariant AG (CLN.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Sales Growth (%) (5.7) (2.1) (0.8) 4.2

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.8 18.1 19.4 20.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Strategic update from new management RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Ongoing demand for higher-value, sustainable Positive strategic update with a clear path to

solutions improving group margins and cash/return Sales / 3,831

Change in status quo from major shareholder performance Revenue 3,738 4,082

Value-generative M&A (SFr, mn) 3,852

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE SABIC increases its stake

Stronger underlying end markets in Personal

0-10% Latin America Care and New Energies EBITDA 692

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 627 715 10-20% China and India RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (SFr, mn) 661

20-30% North America Downturn in Oil Refining, Aviation and Mining

50-60% Europe ex UK end markets

0.86

SABIC monetises its 31.5% stake EPSSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 0.59 0.87

Excessive cash restructuring costs as part of (SFr)View explanation of regional hierarchies here new strategy 0.70

MS ALPHA MODELS Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

1/5 3 Month Inst. Owners, % Active 71.8%

MOST Horizon

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Net Exposure 2.5%

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /