Soitec Q4/FY26 First Take: Q4 Sales ahead, FY26 margins much softer, continuing momentum in SiPho but no hard guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

Soitec Q4/FY26 First Take: Q4 Sales ahead, FY26 margins much softer, continuing momentum in SiPho but no hard guidance

Craig A McDowell AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-4576 27 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

craig.mcdowell@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Soitec (Neutral; Price Target: €150.00)

Investment Thesis

Soitec is going through a period of extreme inventory correction at customers which is

having a significant negative impact on revenue. At the same time, concerns on competition

for Soitec’s largest product (RF-SOI) are heightened. Other products are beginning to

compensate, notably POI and Photonics-SOI, which we expect to become the dominant

revenue stream in the next 2-3 years. Market enthusiasm for Silicon Photonics has resulted

in a significant run up in the shares; however, we now see the valuation as full-to-fair

reflecting the future opportunity.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 price target of €50 is based on 6.5x FY29e EBITDA (y/e March 2029)

(previously set Jun-27 price target on 6.0x FY28). The chosen multiple is in-line with peers

such as Siltronic, Sumco, Shin Etsu, but below Global Wafers. We value on FY29 earnings

which we expect to be more normalised following a period of depressed financial

performance (in FY26 and FY27). We are reluctant on ascribing a higher multiple at this

stage given a lack of visibility and low confidence on the future earnings power.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key upside risks to our rating/price target include:

Better than expected growth in Silicon Photonics

Stabilisation of market share in RF-SOI post inventory correction.

Better-than-expected smartphone recovery and adoption of FD-SOI across 5G

smartphone mmWave, automotive and IoT applications.

New high volume customer wins for POI product offering.