Singapore Airlines Model update: Cruising on demand strength despite some turbulence on fuel costs, Stay OW

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Singapore Airlines Model update: Cruising on demand strength despite some turbulence on fuel costs, Stay OW

Karen Li, CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(852) 2800-8589 27 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

SIA outlook for demand and capacity expansion remains

positive

April demand remains resilient. SIA Group’s April 2026 operating data supports

management’s view that near-term passenger demand remains firm, with traffic growth

ahead of capacity growth. Group passenger traffic rose 7.0% Y/Y versus a 6.3%

increase in capacity, lifting PLF to 88.4%. SIA and Scoot delivered strong PLFs of

87.7% and 91.0%, respectively, while total passengers carried increased 7.5% Y/Y to

3.6MMs. The strength likely reflected sustained leisure and premium demand, plus

spillover traffic on Europe and Americas routes as Middle East hub capacity remained

constrained by geopolitical disruption.

Cargo trends also improved in April. Cargo tonnage grew 3.7% Y/Y, ahead of a 2.3%

capacity increase, lifting cargo load factor by 0.8ppts to 57.9%. This suggests SIA is

benefiting from tighter air freight capacity and rerouted volumes linked to Middle East

airspace disruption. The data also indicates better utilization across both passenger and

cargo operations, which should support yields if demand remains steady. Overall, April

statistics reinforce SIA’s ability to defend high load factors while capturing demand

shifts across its global network.

Capacity growth remains strategic. Cirium schedules as of 22 May 2026 indicate SIA

capacity could expand by c.5%, following already elevated FY26 capacity where ASKs

rose 2%. The Group plans to grow its operating fleet to 224 aircraft by end-FY27E,

supported by nine aircraft deliveries and three retirements, while Scoot’s order for 11