Australian Banks Key themes post 1H26 results: Budget/macro uncertainties at odds with still-high valuations

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Australian Banks Key themes post 1H26 results: Budget/macro uncertainties at odds with still-high valuations

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

27 May 2026

Australian Banks

Key themes post 1H26 results: Budget/macro

uncertainties at odds with still-high valuations

Major banks’ 1H26 reporting season felt like a sideshow to the Federal Budget and Australia

RBA meeting, with these events more meaningful for the market’s perception of

the sector outlook. Results themselves were reasonably close to expectations (with

only NAB missing at PPOP), supported by largely in-line NIM performance and Andrew Triggs AC

modestly weaker average balances (NAB miss again more pronounced). While all (61-2) 9003-8919

andrew.triggs@jpmorgan.com

banks saw relatively subdued UL banking income growth in Q2, we highlight the

Kelsey Bentley

drag from rate lag timing impacts, which will somewhat reverse in Q3. As such, (61-2) 9003 7482

revenue growth should pick up in the near term. The medium term is a different kelsey.bentley@jpmorgan.com

matter, however, with the Federal Budget investor tax policy changes likely to J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

dampen mortgage growth (we now factor in average major bank Australian

housing growth of ~4% in FY27/28). This a) reverses some of the YTD EPS

Pecking Order:upgrade momentum, and b) raises the risk that the sector is viewed as ex-growth.

When combined with significant uncertainty on the macro outlook, we think the 1. MQG (OW)

sector will struggle to perform in the near term. This supports our preference for 2. ANZ (OW)

MQG outside the majors, and our UW ratings on the more expensive mortgage- 3. JDO (OW)

heavy banks (CBA and WBC). NAB has been a material underperformer but

4. BEN (N)