Austrian Post: Few risks to flat earnings on 17x PE; UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Austrian Post: Few risks to flat earnings on 17x PE; UW

Equity Research

European Transportation

26 May 2026

Austrian Post

Few risks to flat earnings on 17x

PE; UW

Model update post 1Q. We keep our FY26 forecasts broadly POST.VI/POST AV UNDERWEIGHT

unchanged, but see some areas of concern, as letter vol Unchanged

declines at HSD for the fourth Q in a row, CEE margin pressure European Transportation UnchangedNEUTRAL

despite vol growth needs operational fix, Turkey trading Price Target EUR 26.10

backdrop challenging. Expensive for flat earnings (2H Unchanged

weighted) Price (22-May-26) EUR 31.75 Potential Upside/Downside -17.8%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

1Q - Austria parcels solid, high letter decline, international parcel profitability weak.

Austria parcel was the clear positive in 1Q26, with parcel volumes up c.10% and revenues up Market Cap (EUR mn) 2144

9.5%, while management confirmed that growth translated into higher absolute profitability Shares Outstanding (mn) 67.55

(Austria parcel EBIT) thanks to market share gains and operating leverage. Mail HSD decline Free Float (%) 47.20

continues for the fourth consecutive quarter. Non-Austria parcel business also not performing 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.0407

well. CEE volumes were up 9% but revs 7% and margins under pressure from intense Dividend Yield (%) 5.76

competition, while Turkey was still affected by lower Asian B2C inflows and FX, despite Return on Equity TTM (%) 15.25

management sounding more constructive on April trends. Full details for 1Q here. Current BVPS (EUR) 10.03

Source: Bloomberg

CEE expansion carriers high execution risk given nature of the industry. Management

reiterated that CEE expansion remains core to the 2030 strategy, as Austrian Post seeks critical Price Performance Exchange-VI