Endeavour Group "Investor Day Preview" (Neutral) Cousins

研报英文原文证据摘录

Endeavour Group "Investor Day Preview" (Neutral) Cousins

Global Research

25 May 2026ab

Endeavour Group Equities

AustraliaInvestor Day Preview

Consumer Services

12-month rating Neutral

Comprehensive strategy review findings to be released at 27 May Investor Day

EDV provided a detailed financial scorecard in Dec-23. While we do not expect as 12m price target A$3.45

thorough a scorecard, we do anticipate quantification of cost savings and financial

markers for what successful strategy execution could be (e.g. above market LFL sales

Price (25 May 2026) A$3.11

growth, EBIT outlook after significant investment from 1-Oct-25, ROC on new capex).

Current balance sheet targets (3.0-3.5x net debt [including leases]/EBITDA; FY26E UBSe RIC: EDV.AX BBG: EDV AU

3.8x) may be revised to pre AASB16 (FY26E UBSe 2.1x), while dividend payout ratio

Trading data and key metrics

guidance (70-75%) may also be revised, with comments about balance sheet resilience

52-wk range A$4.27-3.02

a focus. Earnings unchanged post 3Q26 sales (UBSe FY26E/27E EPS +1.1%/-7.0% vs

Visible Alpha). Retain Neutral as cautious on the Retail recovery given structural & Market cap. A$5.58b/US$4.00b

cyclical headwinds despite a broadly resilient Hotels division and turnaround potential. Shares o/s 1,796m (COM)

Free float 70%

Retail: Revenue growth, market share drivers and cost management the focus Avg. daily volume ('000) 4,214

Structural headwinds plague the liquor category, while cyclical headwinds have returned Avg. daily value (m) A$14.6

with the category more discretionary than staples. Volumes rose in 2Q26 & 3Q26 (UBSe) Common s/h equity (06/26E) A$3.89b

due to significant price investment and VIC industrial action headwinds in the pcp, but P/BV (06/26E) 1.4x

declines are forecast going forward.