China Basic Materials "Impact of Qinyuan coal mine explosion" Ding

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Basic Materials "Impact of Qinyuan coal mine explosion" Ding

Global Research

25 May 2026ab

China Basic Materials Equities

AsiaImpact of Qinyuan coal mine explosion

Basic Materials

Sharon Ding

What happened? Analyst

On May 22, a gas explosion struck the Liushenyu coal mine in Qinyuan, Shanxi, with 247 sharon.ding@ubs.com

workers underground during incident. According to Xinhua, over 80 fatalities have been +852-2971 6284

confirmed. Liushenyu has annual capacity of c.1mt and is owned by Shanxi Tongzhou Elvis Liu

Group (c.4mt). Mysteel reports that all 25 coal mines in Qinyuan have been suspended, Associate Analyst

representing c.26mt of capacity and implying 105kt/day reduction in raw coal output. elvis.liu@ubs.com

+852-3712 3052

Market impact; near-term Rmb20-30/t steel margin squeeze

Qinyuan hosts c.24mt of met coal capacity and thermal coal <2mt. Output is mainly low-

sulphur coking coal and lean coal, typically c.50–60% of coking blends. We estimate

Qinyuan represents ~3% of China’s coking coal supply. Historically, such accidents

trigger nationwide safety inspections, leading to near-term supply disruptions (Figure 1Qinyuan'smetcoaloutputandpastcoalincidents'impact).

We expect immediate output cuts during inspections, tightening domestic supply and

supporting prices. Post-incident, met coal spot prices rose ~Rmb100/t in the first week

before easing after 1 month (Figure 2Metcoalpriceup~Rmb10/tinthefirstwekpostcoalmineincident). The disruption could accelerate the 4th-round

coke price hikes (~Rmb50/t) over the next 2 weeks, as the coke–coal spread breaches

~Rmb150/t (typical trigger: Rmb150-200/t, Figure 3Cokepricehikeswhencoal-cokespreadwidenstoRmb150/t). However, with steel demand