LatAm Transport and Capital Goods "Daily Take-Off: CPA, VLRS, EMBJ" Valerio

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LatAm Transport and Capital Goods "Daily Take-Off: CPA, VLRS, EMBJ" Valerio

Global Research

25 May 2026ab

LatAm Transport and Capital Goods Equities

Latin AmericaDaily Take-Off: CPA, VLRS, EMBJ

Industrial

Alberto Valerio

CPA: 1Q Results and FY Outlook: testament to CPA’s resilience Analyst

We reiterate our Buy rating on Copa, with 1Q results and FY outlook reinforcing the alberto.valerio@ubs.com

company’s differentiated resilience versus regional peers - link. While other airlines +55-11-2767 6918

are moving to protect profitability through route cuts, slower growth and delivery Gavin Parsons

deferrals, Copa maintained its 11–13% YoY ASM growth guidance while continuing to Analyst

support stronger unit revenues from an already best-in-class profitability base. The gavin.parsons@ubs.com

company delivered a 24% operating margin in 1Q, highlighting the strength of its +1-212-713 2389

operating model. Despite higher fuel costs, management expects to recover a Andressa Varotto

substantial portion of the pressure through yields, potentially approaching full Analyst

recovery by year-end if recent pricing trends hold. We raise our FY26/FY27 EPS andressa.varotto@ubs.com

estimates by 11%/5%, reflecting a faster earnings recovery path. For 2Q, we remain +55-11-2767 6654

conservative, modeling an 8% operating margin at the low end of guidance due to Rafael Simonetti

near-term fuel pressure (+80% YoY), but expect stronger recovery into 2H26 Associate Analyst

supported by yields and cost pass-through. As a result, our EPS estimates increase rafael.simonetti@ubs.com

by 11% for FY26 and 5% for FY27 versus our prior forecasts. We continue to see CPA as +55-11-2767 6628

undervalued at ~7x 2027E P/E. Our PT increases to US$195/sh from US$185/sh,

based on 10x P/E.