Packaging & Paper/Forest Products: “Take me out to the World Cup…”; a packaging review, part 1

研报英文原文证据摘录

Packaging & Paper/Forest Products: “Take me out to the World Cup…”; a packaging review, part 1

Exhibit 1: Our 2026 US beer industry forecast assumes the 2026 World Cup will yield a benefit of

about 0.8mm barrels

BofA Global Research 2026 US Beer Industry forecast

2026 BofA US Beer Industry forecast

Exhibit 2: BofA Global Research forecasts 2026 US beer volumes at 178.3mm barrels or a -2.6% YoY

decline

187.0

Balance Decline Increase

185.0 0.8

183.1

183.0

181.0

179.0 178.3

177.0 5.6

175.0

2025 US beer Volume lift from US Underlying demand 2026 US beer

shipments hosting 2026 FIFA shipment forecast

World Cup

Source: BofA Global Research, Beer Marketer’s Insights

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Methodology

To quantify the impact, our colleagues analyzed annual shipment data and compared

event-year volumes to the prior and subsequent two-year averages to normalize for

underlying trends. On this basis, the 1994 World Cup delivered a 0.8mm barrel increase,

or roughly 0.4% to total year volumes, while the 1996 Summer Olympics (Atlanta) saw a

modest decline and the 2002 Winter Olympics (Salt Lake City) produced a 1.4mm barrel

benefit. Given the variability in outcomes, we refined our analysis by examining monthly

data from the Beer Institute to better understand timing and inventory dynamics.

Some additional research suggests volume positives; is 2% far-fetched?

As discussed in our Packaging & Paper/Forest Year Ahead, the World Cup in the U.S. in

2026 could drive a beverage consumption uplift above baseline (in beer consumption)

observed in prior host countries, supported by higher domestic per capita consumption,

a larger match slate, and incremental tourist traffic, particularly from beer-centric

markets, according to ticket sales data from FIFA. We don’t think 2% is far-fetched.