XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (A): Takeaways from annual dealer meeting: 2030 target, new energy & export

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XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (A): Takeaways from annual dealer meeting: 2030 target, new energy & export

Key takeaways

• Medium term target: management targets RMB200bn revenue by 2030,

implying 15% CAGR over 2025-2030. This will be primarily driven by solid

export growth, with % of overseas revenue rising to 60% in 2030 (vs. 48% in

2025). Across different products, management estimates revenue from earth

working machinery/mining equipment/cranes to reach

RMB70bn/RMB40bn/RMB30bn in 2030, respectively.

• Share gain in overseas markets: management aims to expand the number of

regions generating >RMB10bn revenue to five by 2030 (vs. only LatAm

currently). Across different areas, management sees higher growth potential in

West Asia & North Africa/South-East Asia/Europe.

• New energy and intelligent products: Looking into 2030, management

targets to increase the percentage of revenue from new energy products to

40% (vs. c.14% in 2025). Across different products, management sees higher

potential for electrification in cranes, excavator and charging piles given the

still low penetration level. In particular, management estimates >20% of its

excavator sales will be from new energy products in 2030. Meanwhile, the

company targets to increase the percentage of revenue from intelligent

products to 30% in 2030.

• Mining equipment: management targets RMB13-15bn revenue for surface

mining equipment in 2026, mainly driven by growth in overseas markets (i.e.,

LatAm, Indonesia etc.). Australia is expected to become a larger contributor

from 2027 onward, with strong long-term growth potential driven by new

energy demand.

• Gross margin: management targets to raise its gross margin by 2ppt YoY in

2026, mainly driven by 1) improvement in revenue structure; 2) better cost