GMAB - 5 Registration Datasets This Year Offer Pipeline Upside Optionality; Deep Dive Into EPCORE DLBCL-2 (1L DLBCL Phase 3)

研报英文原文证据摘录

GMAB - 5 Registration Datasets This Year Offer Pipeline Upside Optionality; Deep Dive Into EPCORE DLBCL-2 (1L DLBCL Phase 3)

able to expect some decline in efficacy from the small Phase 2 study; as such, we think "success scenario 1" (HR=0.66-75)

seems the more likely outcome (unless the control arm performs differently from historic data).

We currently model $3.0Bn global risk-adjusted Epkinly sales in 2032 and $1.9Bn in GMAB's territory (US/JP) in a base-case

scenario, prior to profit share payments to ABBV. Our current Epkinly forecast incorporates 2L and 3L DLBCL and FL, respectively, as

well as 50% PoS-adjusted sales in 1L DLBCL (20% market share) and 1L FL (10% market share). Positive EPCORE DLBCL-2 data would

increase our sales estimate by $630 and $1Bn (US/JP and global, respectively) in a base case scenario (i.e. HR>0.70) and $1.2-2Bn

(US/JP and global, respectively) in a bull case scenario (HR <0.70) while it would decrease by $900M/1.3Bn (US/JP and global) if the

study fails. We estimate +$3/ADR, +$6/ADR and -$3/ADR in base, bull, and bear case scenarios for EPCORE DLBCL-2, respectively.

Busy catalyst flow offers potl. addl. value drivers throughout 2026. Beyond EPCORE-DLBCL-2, GMAB has numerous additional

pipeline value drivers during 2026. Of these, we believe petosemtamab represents the biggest value driver, currently contributing $10/

ADR to our $40 GMAB PT. GMAB recently confirmed that top-line results from one or both ongoing Phase 3 studies in HNSCC will

be available in 2H26. Rina-S currently contributes $5 risk-adjusted value to our GMAB PT. We see this product candidate as generally

underappreciated by investors while it has the most comprehensive development program ongoing, spanning ovarian, endometrial, and

lung cancers.