VRSK: NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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VRSK: NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Ashish Sabadra (Analyst)

William Qi (AVP)

May 22, 2026

Verisk Analytics, Inc.

NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

NASDAQ: VRSK | USD 171.60 | Outperform | Price Target USD 230.00

Sentiment: Neutral

Our View: NOAA's forecast for a below-normal hurricane season in 2026 contrasts with Verisk's guidance, which assumes average

weather events. A below-normal season would likely limit upside potential for Claims transaction revenues. However, 2H26

revenues should still benefit from favorable year-over-year comparisons, given that 2025 also experienced a below-normal

hurricane season. Additionally, lapping prior-year headwinds from DOGE and auto insurance challenges should accelerate organic

revenue growth in 2H26.

Background. In 2024, two large hurricanes, Milton and Helene, drove elevated levels of transactional volume in VRSK's Property

Estimating Solutions business. Management quantified the specific transactional benefit from these hurricanes as slightly less

than 1% of total revenue in 4Q24. Notably, Claims OCC revenue increased to 12.7% in 4Q24, driving total OCC revenue growth of

8.6% (up from 6.8% in 3Q24). In contrast to FY24, 3Q25 saw a 90% decline in hurricane-related claims industry-wide, leading to

a ~1% negative impact on its OCC revenue growth due to the lack of storm activity. We view NOAA's 2026 forecast as a modest

headwind for VRSK.

2026 hurricane forecast. NOAA forecasts a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, which runs from June 1 to November

30. The agency predicts a 55% chance of below-normal activity, a 35% chance of near-normal conditions, and a 10% chance of

above-normal activity.