DeBLASEing the Trail: Recalibrating CapExpectations - 1Q26 Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

DeBLASEing the Trail: Recalibrating CapExpectations - 1Q26 Update

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

United States 24 May 2026

DeBLASEing the

Industrials Industry Update

Multi - Industry & Electrical Trail

Equipment

Recalibrating CapExpectations - 1Q26

Update

Nicole DeBlase

Weekly #302: Updating our proprietary global capex database post-1Q26 Research Analyst

earnings +1-212-250-5916

This week, we update our proprietary global capex database, which links historical

annual investment (back to 1980) with global DB analyst/Bloomberg forecasts Andrew Krill, CFA

Research Analyst

(through 2026). This yields a projection well suited to gauging the outlook for MI/EE

+1-212-250-2997

revenue, given that our work focuses on the 25 industries that we view as critical to

our coverage universe's sales; we list these in the body of this report. Net/net, we Naim Kaplan

now forecast 4.6% Y/Y capex growth in 2026, improving from our last projection of Research Associate

3.8% post-4Q25 earnings, and also improving vs. 3.9% growth reported in 2025. +1-212-250-5332

After combing through 1Q26 commentary from the MI/EE group's earnings calls, Jackson Glenn

we find that secular growth themes remain the predominant capex growth driver, Research Associate

but we also found an increasingly constructive tone around "everything else", albeit +1-212-250-2500

with some lingering headwinds related to macro/trade policy/geopolitical

uncertainty, with added near-term disruption from the Middle East conflict.

Our database projects 4.6% Y/Y capex growth in 2026, stepping up from 3.8%

as of our post-4Q25 update

Drilling into the 2026 capex outlook by end market, our database projects strong

double-digit growth for seven of 25 end markets: Semiconductors (+24%),