Timeless Jewellery Maisons Delivers 16% Growth, Hard Luxury Thesis Intact

研报英文原文证据摘录

Timeless Jewellery Maisons Delivers 16% Growth, Hard Luxury Thesis Intact

gold, which drove FY26 margin headwinds

and remain key swing factors into FY27, with management emphasizing these as more

impactful than tariffs. From a modeling perspective, key considerations include (1) tougher 2H

compares given sustained double-digit growth across FY26, particularly in the Americas and

Jewellery; (2) margins highly dependent on FX and gold, with limited visibility and the unusual

dynamic of a stronger USD alongside higher gold; and (3) continued mix shift toward DTC

and Jewellery providing structural tailwinds. We also note cleaner FY27 comparisons ex one-

time charges and easier 2H margin comparisons, though top-line comparisons remain most

demanding in the Americas and Jewellery. While we continue to view Richemont as a relative

outperformer within luxury, near-term margin and earnings visibility remains limited.

Highlights From The Call: We view Richemont as well-positioned to navigate volatility given

strong U.S. demand and structural strength in Jewellery. Key highlights from the call include:

(1) Management emphasized that demand, particularly in the U.S., is driven by a “feel-good”

confidence factor rather than purely income levels, underpinning continued strength in

Jewellery and Watches as consumers shift toward timeless, higher-value purchases over

fashion-oriented spend, supporting consistent double-digit growth in the Americas. (2)

Management highlighted an increasingly competitive landscape in China with local and

newer brands gaining traction, noting that while demand is stabilizing, success will rely on

continued creativity, product innovation, and refreshed brand propositions, rather than legacy

positioning or acquisitions of local brands.