Weakness to persist – downgrade to Hold

研报英文原文证据摘录

Weakness to persist – downgrade to Hold

India | Engineering & Construction

Afcons EquityMayResearch20, 2026

RATING | TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEWeakness to persist – downgrade to Hold

March Qtr EBITDA was 52% below our estimates led by a 26% revenue RATING HOLD (BUY)

miss and 335 bps miss on margins at 6.4%. FY26 order flow is down 74% PRICE INR314.60^

YoY at Rs41 bn due to L1 conversion delays and cancellations. Order PRICE TARGET | % TO PT INR305 (INR440) | -3%

book is down 12% YoY. FY26 revenue fell 5% YoY vs 5% growth guidance, 52W HIGH-LOW INR479.05 - INR265.90

with management citing slower execution due to delayed payments and FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 41.4% | 945.16

US-Iran-Israel conflict-led disruptions. We lower FY27E-28E EPS by 37% MARKET CAP INR115.7B | $1.2B

+ to reflect the weakness and downgrade to Hold. TICKER AFCONS IN

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

FY26 order flow missed Rs200 bn guidance by 79%; FY27E guidance is Rs300 bn: 64%

of Rs230 bn orders in which Afcons was lowest bidder (L1) at the end of Sept Qtr have

been cancelled, including two road projects in Croatia worth Rs45 bn and Rs102 bn of FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

L1s in Maharashtra. Rs75 bn railway project in Croatia has seen conversion delays while 2027 2028 2027 2028

management also highlighted that some large project awards expected in 4Q were deferred. REV -24% -21% -16% -12%

Out of Rs300 bn FY27E order flow guidance, management has clear visibility on Rs137 bn EPS -60% -38% -40% -19%

orders comprising a Rs4 bn underground metro project already awarded and Rs133 bn of

L1 orders including the Croatia railway project and the Rs53 bn Vadhawan Port breakwater 2027 (INR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

project.