Timken Investor Day Highlights

研报英文原文证据摘录

Timken Investor Day Highlights

USA | Machinery

Timken EquityMayResearch20, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGETimken Investor Day Highlights

Timken hosted its 2026 Investor Day outlining the company's "Elevate to RATING HOLD

Outperform" strategy which leans on 80/20 disciplines to drive growth in PRICE $109.36^

strategic verticals and margin outperformance. The company's 2028 target for PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $120.00 | +10%

$5.0-5.2bn in sales and 500bps of margin expansion and $8.50 in earnings. 52W HIGH-LOW $123.67 - $67.14

While the Street is already projecting a similar revenue target (~4% CAGR) FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 90.6% | 97.29

the margin profile in higher than expected. Typically margin begets multiple in MARKET CAP $7.7B

Industrials. TICKER TKR

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

The Medium Term (2028) Target. The 2028 sales target calls for $5.0-5.2bn, a MSD growth CAGR,

made up of 3.5-4.0% in market growth, 0.5-1.0% of strategic vertical outgrowth and 0.3-0.5% in

global platform expansion (Ex. 6). Incorporated in the outlook is ~$200mn of portfolio optimization. FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

The Adj EBITDA Margin target of 21-23% (~18% 2026E) implies an incremental margin north of 2026 2027 2026 2027

50%, significantly higher than the 30-35% historic average. The walk to achievement incorporates REV NA NA NM -1%

100-150bps from market incrementals, 150-200bps in portfolio optimization, 100-150bps from EPS NA +7% -1% +4%

strategic vertical outgrowth incrementals and 50-100bps from global platform expansion (Ex. 5).

Applying the current peer group forward EV/EBITDA multiple of ~12.0x (Ex. 4) and discounting back 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

would imply a share price closer to $140 or 30% upside from current levels.