MBG: Takeaways from the MBG US Capital Market Event & AMG World Premiere

研报英文原文证据摘录

MBG: Takeaways from the MBG US Capital Market Event & AMG World Premiere

12% y/y in '25) and the G-Class 2025 1.99A 2.65A 1.91A 1.44A

(up 26% y/y in '25, demand outpacing supply) could provide bottom-line 2026 1.35A 1.25E 1.51E 1.33E

support even if the volume target is not fully achieved. Historicals restated to remove China JV income.

All values in EUR unless otherwise noted.

Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

GLC localization and $7B US investment underscore long-term

commitment. The GLC will be localized to the US as part of a $7B

investment through 2030, a meaningful strategic shift from prior German

production. Assuming flat GLC volumes (~77K in 2025), an average import

value of ~$40K, and a 15% tariff, localization alone could imply ~$460M

of EBIT improvement, or ~50bps of margin expansion, representing a

meaningful benefit that could pave the way for further localization.

Technology impresses, but pricing power remains the key question.

MB.OS and MBG's intelligence-first software-defined vehicle strategy

were impressive, with notable advances in infotainment, ADAS, and AI

integration. However, given that advanced software and ADAS features are

rapidly becoming table stakes in Chinese vehicles, the ability to sustainably

monetize these capabilities in the US over time remains the critical open

question.

AMG's potential as a structural margin driver. The new AMG GT 4-Door

Coupe (0-100 km/h in 2.1s, 1,153hp, 690-700km WLTP range) showcased

AMG's proprietary axial-flux motor and liquid battery cooling technology,

helping reinforce our conviction in the brand's growth trajectory. AMG

targets ~200K units by 2030 (~7% CAGR), with North America representing

a significant opportunity (~54K units vs. ~225K market potential).