Hindalco In a sweet spot

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hindalco In a sweet spot

Vibhav Zutshi, CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(91-22) 6157-3585 24 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

vibhav.zutshi@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Hindalco is India’s second-largest aluminium producer and the

world’s largest flat-rolled product player and recycler.

Hindalco’s India business should see an improving margin

trajectory led by higher value added downstream sales and

captive coal volumes over the medium to long term. Profitability

in the U.S. (Novelis) is showing weakness due to tariffs/near

term volume disruption (Oswego plant fire), however we

believe the worst is behind and FY27 should see improved

volumes as the Oswego plant comes onstream and the benefit of

YTD 1m 3m 12m improved scrap spreads accrue. Following the commodity price

Abs 23.9% 6.7% 18.5% 70.8% rally driven by the Middle East conflict, leverage ratios should

Rel 33.2% 9.4% 25.8% 74.4%

improve substantially. We believe the risk-reward is attractive at

Company Data current valuations.

Shares O/S (mn) 2,224

Valuation52-week range (Rs) 1,115.00-617.90

Market cap ($ mn) 25,781 Our Mar-27 PT of Rs1,180 is based on our one-year forward

Exchange rate 95.69 estimates and we value Hindalco using a sum-of-the-parts

Free float (%) 58.5%

3M ADV (mn) 6.64 (SOTP) methodology. Our target multiples for the aluminium

3M ADV ($ mn) 67.5 and copper businesses are in line with global peer averages; the

Volatility (90 Day) 36 Novelis multiple is in line with peer Constellium (CSTM). Our

Index NIFTY

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 11|13|6 FY27-28E EBITDA is largely unchanged. We also tweak our net

debt and CWIP assumptions. Overall, our PT is revised slightly

Key Metrics (FYE Mar)

higher to Rs1,180.

Rs in millions FY26A FY27E FY28E FY29E