REITs: Adjusting Estimates & PTs (PINE & REXR)

研报英文原文证据摘录

REITs: Adjusting Estimates & PTs (PINE & REXR)

026 forecast assumes:

• $100m of property acquisitions at a 7.5% cap rate

Reasons for this report • $28m of property dispositions at a 7.4% cap rate

✓ Adjusting Estimates and Price Targets • $95m of loan originations

✓ Lowering PINE PT to $20 from $21 and • $30m of loan repayment

REXR PT to $38 from $40 • $120m of equity issuance

We are trimming our 12-month price target to $20 from $21. Our target reflects an equal-

weighted blend of: one-third weighting to our discounted cash flow value of $26.88, one-

third weighting to a 20% discount to our projected NAV one year forward, and one-third

weighting to 9.0x 2026E AFFO. PINE currently trades at a 7% premium to our NAV

estimate, compared to an average 20% discount to consensus NAV over the past three

years, and at 9x 2026E AFFO, versus a historical average of approximately 12x.

See our recent earnings note: PINE - Quick Take - Beat-and-Raise Continues as Equity

Supports Growth Flywheel

Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR, Buy):

Following 1Q26 earnings, we are maintaining our 2026 normalized FFO estimate at

$2.38ps, which is within management’s 2026 guidance range of $2.37–$2.42. We are

also reducing our 2027 normalized FFO estimate to $2.38ps from $2.40ps.

The downward revisions primarily reflect a more conservative operating outlook,

including incremental dispositions, negative lease spreads, near-term occupancy

softness, and longer lease-up period for development assets.

Our updated 2026 outlook incorporates:

• ~115bps decline in average occupancy

• ~9% blended negative cash lease spreads

• ~1.3% SSNOI decline (excluding termination fees)

• ~$400m of dispositions at a 4% cap rate

We are lowering our 12-month price target to $38 from $40. Our price target reflects