Lodging - International hotels’ RevPAR last week: China -0.8% y/y, Europe -0.2% y/y

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lodging - International hotels’ RevPAR last week: China -0.8% y/y, Europe -0.2% y/y

Truist Securities

H: Valuation and Risks

Our price target of $181 is derived by applying a 16.7x target EV/EBITDA multiple (a blended average of the industry multiples for each

business segment) to our estimate for 2027 EBITDA. Our sum-of-the-parts analysis on our 2027 segment multiple assumptions include

(12.5x owned EBITDA u/c, 17.5x fees EBITDA (up from 16.5x prior)) and other segments/ALG (10-12x, u/c).

Risks to our rating and price target: Material labor issues to owned hotels. Regional risks to the Caribbean including material new

competitive supply growth. H pipeline growth slower than expected. Apple Leisure Group underperforms Hyatt's guidance.

MAR: Valuation and Risks

Our $350 price target is based on a 17.7x blended multiple on our 2027E EBITDA. In the parts, we assign a 12.0x multiple of EBITDA to

the Owned segment and 18.0x fees EBITDA (the fees EBITDA also includes credit card branding fees, a 10x multiple business) to the

managed/franchised business. The multiple is towards the higher end of the historical range of 9-18x.

Risks to our rating and price target:

Upside Risks: Significant U.S macroeconomic improvement results in large recovery in transient corporate and group/convention demand.

Owned assets sell for premium prices relative to MAR expectations. Supply growth is stronger than expectations. Consolidation in the

lodging industry benefits MAR.

Downside Risks: Deep macroeconomic recession. Geopolitical, inflation, and policy risks negatively impact lodging demand. Inability to

grow pipeline in line with Street expectations.

HLT: Valuation and Risks