Amadeus – derated but not derailed

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Amadeus – derated but not derailed

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Amadeus IT Group (AMS SM)

EQUITY RESEARCH Company Update

May 20, 2026

Amadeus – derated but not derailed Price: €52.18

Price Target: €64.00 (From €84.00) Despite beating Q1 estimates and reiterating FY26 guidance – albeit

Rating: Overweight flagging the lower end of the HSD range – Amadeus shares remain

Key Statistics: down ~15% YTD and ~30% over the past year, with roughly two-thirds

Symbol MADRID: AMS SM of the derating attributable to AI disruption fears and the balance to

52-Week Range 46.21 - 75.38 Middle East-driven traffic headwinds. We do not dismiss the downside

Market Cap 23,426.0 risks: a prolonged conflict, sustained fuel cost inflation and a squeezed ADV (3 mo) 1,316,983

consumer could pressure H2 volume assumptions further. However, Q1 Shares Out (M) 450.5

demonstrated that superior unit economics – pricing, upselling and a

fast-growing professional services stream – can largely absorb volume Research Analysts:

Bharath Nagaraj weakness, and we expect this dynamic to persist throughout the year.

Cantor Europe At ~15x FY26E P/E, the risk/reward is compelling for a structurally

+44 20 7894 7347 advantaged business that continues to take global market share and is Bharath.Nagaraj@cantor.com

credibly positioning itself as the neutral AI orchestrator at the core of

Sales (€) travel infrastructure. We reduce our 12-month PT to €64 (from €84) but

FYE Dec 2026E 2027E 2028E remain Overweight.

Year 6.8(B)E 7.4(B) 8.1(B)

Prev 7.0(B)E 7.6(B) - Our revised estimates. Due to the impact of the Middle East conflict,

we reduce our revenue estimates by 2.0%-2.5% and now forecast FY26 EBITDA (€)

constant-currency revenue growth of 6.9%, at the lower end of the original

FYE Dec 2026E 2027E 2028E guidance range.