Q1: all eyes on order momentum

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q1: all eyes on order momentum

May 20, 2026

Valuation

We see fair value for Steyr Motors at €62.00 per share based on DCF and a peer group

analysis. We believe a DCF is best suited to capture the back-end loaded growth of an

expanding defence order book. Main assumptions: WACC 9%, terminal growth rate 2%

and terminal EBIT margin 18%. A peer group analysis is also warranted as free float

has expanded to 80% and the stock has firmly left 'micro-cap' territory, with a market

capitalisation exceeding €200m.

Risks

Customer concentration & programme dependence. A large share of revenues

depends on a few key defence programmes (e.g. Leopard 2, KF51 Panther, etc)

and prime contractors. Delays, cancellations or redesigns in these platforms could

have a disproportionate financial impact. Long qualification cycles make replacing lost

programmes difficult.

Exposure to defence procurement cycle. Although global defence spending is rising,

procurement remains lumpy and at times politically driven. Budget delays, election cycles

or shifting priorities (e.g. toward drones or AI systems) can delay or reduce orders.

Supply chain & production risk. The company’s small-batch, high-customisation model

increases reliance on specific suppliers and skilled labour. Supply chain bottlenecks

(especially for precision components or electronics) can disrupt deliveries and margins.

Regulatory & export control risk. Defence exports are tightly regulated; any tightening of

export licences, sanctions or end-user restrictions could constrain sales. Changes in EU or

US export regimes may particularly affect deliveries to non-NATO customers.

Technology & competitive risk. Emerging propulsion technologies (e.g. hybrid or electric

drives) could erode the long-term relevance of traditional diesel engines.