PCAR: Scaled Truck Dealer Check: Rising Production, Slower May Orders, Flat Truck Pricing, Parts, EPA 2027

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PCAR: Scaled Truck Dealer Check: Rising Production, Slower May Orders, Flat Truck Pricing, Parts, EPA 2027

Equity Research

Company Update — May 20, 2026

Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services

PACCAR Inc

Scaled Truck Dealer Check: Rising Production, Slower May Equal Weight

Orders, Flat Truck Pricing, Parts, EPA 2027 Price Target: $125.00

Our Call Ticker PCAR

Upside/(Downside) to Target 12.0%

Our discussion with a scaled ($600+ mn) Paccar dealer centered on: (i) flat truck pricing,

(ii) 40-year high of parked truck parts cannibalization, (iii) slowdown in orders in May amid Price (05/20/2026) $111.64

war concern, (iv) PCAR raised production by ~10% in early May. 52 Week Range $90.05 - 131.88

Market Cap (MM) $58,879

(i) Flat truck pricing. The dealer noted prices have been largely flat since the start of the Average Daily Value (MM) $320

year, with the Middle East conflict pausing any incremental pricing actions. Daimler and Dividend Yield 3.0%

International are not pushing price as they prioritize filling order boards.

$ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

(ii) Materially softer orders. Order activity has softened materially over the past three EPS

weeks, according to our dealer contact. Order intake had looked promising before the Iran 2026E 1.15 A 1.35 E 1.44 E 1.54 E 5.47 E

conflict, but activity now looks limited. 2027E 1.59 E 1.62 E 1.65 E 1.71 E 6.57 E

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

(iii) Short lead times. Lead times remain short, with the dealer indicating a truck can be NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

delivered as early as June. Paccar raised its build rate by ~10% recently according to our Jerry Revich, CFA

contact. Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Jerry.Revich@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5458