Vipshop "Attractive yield and asset monetization upside; upgrade to a Buy" (Buy)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Vipshop "Attractive yield and asset monetization upside; upgrade to a Buy" (Buy)

Vipshop UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: Will Vipshop return to normalised earnings growth?

While near-term earnings growth could remain under pressure on soft discretionary demand and

intense competition, we expect VIPS to return to normalised low single digit growth. After a topline

decline in 2024-25, VIPS has taken steps to improve operational capability after realigning last year to

focus on enhancing 1P efficiency and quality-driven growth along with cost discipline. This was

evidenced by healthy SVIP member growth and the increase in their spending contribution to 55% in

Q1.

Q: Will the Shanshan outlets reshape VIPS growth and the margin profile?

Yes, we flag threefold positive impacts: 1) enriching VIPS retail portfolio and ecosystem where offline

outlets provide an efficient growth alternative for merchants and consumers, especially amid macro

uncertainties; 2) improving margins, given Shanshan's take-rate model, which is margin accretive;

and 3) longer-term asset monetization potential with 18 more outlets set to mature, enabling gradual

capital recycling and a transition to a more asset-light model. Amid a more refined geographic

expansion strategy, we believe Shanshan will underpin potential upside in shareholder returns.

UBS VIEW We upgrade VIPS to Buy from a Neutral based on more favourable risk-reward at 6x 2026E PE and

14% yield with potential upside from stronger asset monetization. While we remain cautious on the

near-term consumption recovery with growth likely to remain under pressure in the near term, we

note early signs of stabilisation.