First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Iron ore down 1.4% on rising supply" Shaw

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Iron ore down 1.4% on rising supply" Shaw

prices continue to rise, we think the positive fundamental outlook for copper based on

supply constraints vs resilient demand from energy transition is unchanged/arguably

more compelling. Mine disruptions/downgrades continue (Kamoa-Kakula Grasberg)

and, in our view, energy price volatility is likely to reinforce the need for sustained

investment in renewables, grids and reshoring that will support copper demand

medium-term. After reviewing our S&D model, we continue to believe the market is

likely to move into deficit, and that tighter physical markets/inventory drawdown will

support elevated prices medium-term; but the market is not super tight today. Demand

signals are mixed and sustained high prices will increase thrifting/substitution pressure;

whilst mine output remains under pressure, smelter output continues to hold up,

suggesting the much anticipated copper deficit may take longer to materialise and an

inventory buffer will need to be eroded for real physical tightness to emerge. The near-

term S&D outlook and inventory position does not give us conviction to chase near-term

price upside; but in our view compelling fundamental outlook and potential strategic

buying will limit downside creating a balanced near-term outlook after recent gains. We

mark-to-market 2026 copper forecasts (+13%); lift 2027/28 by 4%/3% to $6.0/lb /

$13.2k/t and increase LT forecasts by 10% to $5.50/lb (earnings/PT changes p16). Link

to note Source: UBS.

Rare Earths - Catching up with...Wood Mackenzie: We caught up with commodity

consultant Wood Mackenzie (WM) to get their latest view on the rare earths market.

Overall, they were less optimistic near-term demand vs. UBSe, but forecast the China