Global Rates Weekly: Chair lift

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Rates Weekly: Chair lift

Core views, trades and forecasts

Exhibit 1: Global rates trade quilt

Views / trades in bold when changed / entered this week

US EU UK CA JP AU

Short Long: Buy 10Y Bund outright Short Long

Duration Short bias Short bias

Sell 2Y UST and vs 10y UST Pay Jun MPC Sonia Buy 10y ACGB

Flatter 2s5s Flatter Z6-Z7

Curve Flatter vs forwards Steeper 2s10s vs US Steepening bias in 2s10s 1y fwd 2s10s flattener

Steeper 5s30s Steeper 10y5y-15y5y

Close short Jun26 SOFR/FF Jun27 IMM 2y Euribor-€str CORRA cheaper vs deposit Receive 1y1y

Bases Sonia cheaper vs. Bank TONA below IOER

Long Dec26 SOFR/FF widener rate AONIA/SOFR

Long 1y5y EURi/sell payers 1y1y/2y2y RPI inversion

Inflation Close received 5y real rate

Receive forward real rates Short 10y5y RPI vs US

Long bias on front end Short bias on 2-10y German Long low coupon Gilt on Z- Short front-end spreads Shift from short spread to

Spreads Long 3y future vs swaps

spread (richer USTs) bonds vs swaps spread vs US neutral

Long fwd vol Sell front-end payers 1x2 Long fwd vol

Vol Short left vs right

Short left vs right Long left vs right Long front-end receivers

Source: BofA Global Research. Note: Red = short / steeper / tighter funding, green = long / flatter / looser funding. yellow = mixed, grey = neutral or n/a.. Lighter shades = bias, darker shades = trade.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 2: Rationale behind medium-term views

Global views

US: Fed on hold for ’26, cuts in Q3 ’27; EU: bearish bias near term via Z6-Z7 flattener. We expect one hike in June, another in July; UK: Pay Jun’26 MPC-dated Sonia: the market

CBs erased too much from Jun pricing. We forecast one hike in July, another in Sept; JP: We expect the next rate hike at the June MPM; AU: RBA on hold for rest of ’26; CA: BoC on