Morning Market Tidbits: A large productivity boom could lie ahead

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Morning Market Tidbits: A large productivity boom could lie ahead

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Morning Market Tidbits

A large productivity boom could lie ahead

Key takeaways 22 May 2026

Economics• AI is having a small impact on macro output so far, lifting aggregate productivity only

United States

about 0.1% per year.

• Yet as AI models improve and spread, macro productivity is likely to get bigger, Carlos Capistran

LatAm and Canada Economist

potentially up to 1.0% per year (10x). BofAS

carlos.capistran@bofa.com

• Today's events: UMich consumer sentiment, comments from Fed's Waller and Kevin

Ruben Segura-Cayuela

Warsh's swearing in ceremony as Fed Chair. Europe Economist

BofA Europe (Madrid)

ruben.segura-cayuela@bofa.com

What Matters Today: AI could affect the growth rate of productivity and magnify its long-term Claudio Irigoyen

impact on productivity growth, but the magnitudes of the effects are largely uncertain Global Economist BofAS

Different scenarios for the impact of AI on productivity (cumulative GDP growth, Index) claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

Global Economics Team

200% Baseline Level Level+Growth (20%) BofAS

See Team Page for List of Analysts

175%

150%

125%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Years

Source: Baily et al (2023)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Macro productivity gains from AI are lagging micro so far

AI is already boosting productivity gains in very specific well‑defined tasks, but these

increases have yet to scale sharply across the whole economy. In practice, slow adoption,

skills gaps, and organizational constraints have limited AI’s impact on output. Thus, for

now, economy‑wide productivity is only rising about 0.1% per year. This is a small

aggregate effect relative to all the excitement around AI.