Deckers Outdoor Corp: 4Q beat offset by expectations for a non-linear sales cadence

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Deckers Outdoor Corp: 4Q beat offset by expectations for a non-linear sales cadence

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Deckers Outdoor Corp

4Q beat offset by expectations for a non-

linear sales cadence

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 115.00 USD | Price: 102.62 USD

A beat, cautious guidance and a long-term plan 22 May 2026

We reiterate our Neutral rating as margin pressure and a non-linear sales cadence cloud Equity

visibility on upward estimate revisions. Deckers (DECK) reported 4Q EPS of $0.96,

beating our/VA consensus estimates of $0.77/$0.83 driven by strength across Hoka and

Key ChangesUgg and better gross margins, partially offset by higher SG&A. Management guided FY

revenue +HSD, with Hoka LDD and Ugg MSD. It also introduced a multi-year framework (US$) Previous Current

through F30. However, 1Q sales and margins were guided below expectations on slower Price Obj. 120.00 115.00

Hoka growth, tariff pressure and elevated marketing. We are raising our FY27/F28 EPS 2027E Rev (m) 5,704.2 5,848.8

estimates by 2.8%/4.2% to $7.38/$7.94 to reflect the 4Q beat, but lower our PO to 2028E Rev (m) 5,968.8 6,120.6

$115, now based on 15x F28E P/E (from 17x F27E) as we roll forward our valuation year 2029E Rev (m) NA 6,409.2

and to reflect peer multiple contraction. 2027E EPS 7.18 7.38

2028E EPS 7.62 7.94

2029E EPS NA 8.55Hoka momentum strong but “non-linear”

Hoka delivered 15% growth (DTC +18%, wholesale +13%) and contributed to gross

margin expansion with high full-price selling. Management guided LDD growth in F27 Lorraine Hutchinson, CFA

Research Analyst

and the F28-30 framework. However, 1Q’s HSD guidance reflects lapping earlier EMEA BofAS

shipments tied to the 3PL transition, APAC distributor delays, and a planned drawdown +1 646 855 0951 lorraine.hutchinson@bofa.com