We Sell Lenses, Not Crystal Balls - Maintain Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

We Sell Lenses, Not Crystal Balls - Maintain Neutral

04.39

FY26E EPS 0.31 0.44

Bull: ICL rev. +18.8% vs. Cons., GM +210bps vs. Cons., China market demand improving

FY27E EPS 0.44 0.77

Bear: COGS +27.3% vs. Cons., No FY26 guidance, Ex-China rev. +6% FY28E EPS 0.56 0.87

■ No FY26 guidance provided: STAA did not provide formal FY26 guidance. More Revenue (M)

generally, mgmt. is focusing on driving rev. growth in key markets, expanding profit FY Dec 2026E 2027E 2028E

through cost management, and accelerating innovation with new-term product Q1 93.52A 101.14 110.43

enhancements and strengthening the pipeline. Mgmt. noted STAA is on track to hit

Q2 89.02 96.27 105.11 its FY26 spending target of ~$225M. Mgmt. anticipates FY26 GMs to be ~75% but

noted higher cost of inventory from its Swiss manufacturing facility may impact this Q3 87.82 94.97 103.69

slightly. Q4 71.44 77.63 85.16

FY REV 341.80 370.02 404.39 ■ China market dynamics: STAA reported 1Q26 China rev. of $47.4M driven by

recovery in in-market demand (vs. inventory buildup), consistent with commentary Diluted EPS (Adjusted)

from ophthalmic peers within China such as Eyebright Medical (688050-SH, Not FY Dec 2026E 2027E 2028E

Rated), Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015-SH, Not Rated) and Carl Zeiss (AFX-ETR, Q1 0.10A 0.31 0.33

Not Rated). Early demand for EVO+ in China has exceeded expectations. Mgmt. Q2 0.18 0.22 0.25

noted EVO+ is priced at a premium and is expected to contribute to margin

Q3 0.16 0.19 0.22 expansion as volumes scale. As of 1Q26, distributor inventory was at or below

contractual levels as STAA saw an improvement of in-market sales and procedures. Q4 0.00 0.04 0.07

STAA also noted improved visibility into downstream inventory but we would note FY EPS 0.44 0.77 0.87

that consignment levels remain elevated.