BCAX - BUY - ASCO Data Update Exactly What We Wanted To See To Support Bull Case

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BCAX - BUY - ASCO Data Update Exactly What We Wanted To See To Support Bull Case

FLASH NOTE

May 22, 2026

Brad Canino brad.canino@guggenheimpartners.com BCAX - BUY - ASCO Data Update Exactly What We

212 823 6558 Wanted To See To Support Bull Case

BCAX Keythat theMessage:ongoingUpdatedph3 hasph1a highficeraprobability1L HNSCCto hitdataOS,reinforceand the increasedour investmentrobustness/thesis

Bicara Therapeutics Inc. transparency of BCAX’s ph1 program should shift investors away from the bear

Sector: Biotechnology thesis that ficera is negatively differentiated vs. GMAB’s peto (see our initiation:

HERE). On 1,500mg RP3D OS, the new 3yr landmark and curve can be overlain the

Company Update KN-048 benchmark and two real-world HPV-neg cohorts to show both a significantly

Share Price $20.84 increased median and higher tail (Exhibit 1). This increases our confidence that a

positive OS HR, which is required for full approval after an expected accelerated approval

based on durable ORR, can be driven both by the increased PFS for the entire population

Market Data and by an increase in durable responders. We think BCAX could be better positioned

52-Week Range $7.80 - $24.25 to hit on OS and do so with a meaningful HR given management’s selection of HPV-

Shares Out (M) 65.7 neg patients only, who do not live as long as HPV-pos patients based on real-world

Market Cap (M) $1,369 data. On the new dose cohorts (one lower dose with less TGF-B coverage and one

ADV (3 mo; 000) 592 higher dose than RP3D), the directional alignment of PFS and OS measures should give

Financial Metrics confidence that the ph1 signal supporting the RP3D is real. Many investors with whom we

Cash (M) $540 speak still offer pushback about BCAX legacy data disclosure practices and a belief that