Still Waiting on the Cattle Turn

研报英文原文证据摘录

Still Waiting on the Cattle Turn

USA | Food Products

MBRF Global Foods Company EquityMayResearch19, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEStill Waiting on the Cattle Turn

MBRF's 1Q reinforced the divergence between its advantaged SA beef and BRF RATING BUY

platforms and the pressured NA segment. All three segments beat EBITDA, PRICE R$17.42^

with SA and BRF providing stability while NA showed early improvement as PRICE TARGET | % TO PT R$23.00 (R$26.00) | +32%

March spreads recovered. Synergy capture is on pace, and Sadia Halal's record 52W HIGH-LOW R$27.66 - R$14.59

profitability alongside IPO preparations offer a near-term catalyst. That said, FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 41.5% | 182.81

sustained NA margin recovery hinges on a cattle cycle turn likely still years out. MARKET CAP R$24.4B | $4.8B

TICKER MBRF3 BZ

North America margins remain compressed, but March signaled improvement. MBRF's NA beef ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

business stayed in the cattle cycle trough in 1Q, with sales missing cons as volumes fell amid a

HSD% industry slaughter drop. Cutout values ran below cattle costs through Feb, but Mar brought

a notable improvement that carried into April before softening into May. EBITDA beat cons, with FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

mgmt confident Q2 will improve y/y. Prior-cycle investment in efficiency and value-add products is 2026 2027 2026 2027

bearing fruit, positioning the company to outperform peers through the trough. While '26 is expected REV* <-1% NM NM NM

to improve, no meaningful heifer retention has emerged, pointing to '28 or later as the realistic EBITDA -4% -4% NA NA

supply inflection.

2026 (R$) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

South America and BRF offset NA weakness with strong execution. SA beef beat cons on both