DBI: Initial 2026/27 TIC and distribution guidance; Remain Sector Perform

研报英文原文证据摘录

DBI: Initial 2026/27 TIC and distribution guidance; Remain Sector Perform

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

While the 99-year lease over the Dalrymple Bay portDalrymple Bay Infrastructure Limited

assets presents a highly strategic long-dated opportunity, the

6.5 125 Weeks 27DEC23 - 19MAY26 market’s full appreciation of this value is limited by the port’s

6 TARGETTARGET 5.505.50 current reliance on (and the market’s aversion to) the trade in

5.5 CURRENTCURRENT 5.485.48 coal. While the Dalrymple Bay operating business is relatively 5

4.5 straightforward, the DBI investment remains higher risk given

4 its financial leverage and in particular low stock liquidity.

3.5

3 Future growth opportunities remain relatively limited, with

2.5 the ‘8x terminal expansion’ the only visible options at present.

200m 150m Risks to rating and price target

100m 50m Coal volume risk – Whilst DBI operates on a take-or-pay basis,

2024 2025 2026

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M ports are long-dated assets and thus DBI will over time be

DBI AU Rel. AUSTRALIAN ALL ORDINAIRES MA 40 weeks exposed to the longevity of coal volumes.

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target

Valuation Risk to long-term growth – Higher/lower expectations of

long-term coal demand will impact the return forecastsOur rounded 12-month price target of A$5.50/share reflects

underpinning the proposed 26mtpa capacity expansion.the longer-dated skew of the infrastructure investor base,

by employing a rounded 75% long-term (fwd NPV) and 25% Contract default risk – With a relatively limited customer base,short-term (fwd target yield) valuation mix.