ASIA STRATEGY : Asia's super-super tech earnings super-cycle

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ASIA STRATEGY : Asia's super-super tech earnings super-cycle

STRATEGY

ASIA STRATEGY

Asia's super-super tech earnings super-cycle

Asia is in the middle of an astonishing tech-driven uplift in F12M earnings21 MAY 2026

Macro Research Report Asia’s F12M earnings are surging. The 3,700 companies we track across China, India, Japan,

Production time: 10:02 (London time) South Korea, and Taiwan are now forecasted to deliver approx. USD2.6tn in earnings over the next

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities 12M, up nearly USD560bn since last September. Except for the 2021 post COVID-19 bounce,

William Bratton there is no precedent for such a dramatic improvement in earnings expectations. This is, however,

BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Limited not a broad-based story but one nearly entirely driven by the tech super-cycle. The tech sector has+852 2825 1175

william.bratton@asia.bnpparibas.com accounted for three-quarters of the F12M earnings uplift since last-Sept, with the South Korean

tech hardware and semiconductor sub-industries singularly accounting for 54% of the total uplift.

But the tech strength is hiding earnings weakness elsewhere

The tech sector is now more important than financials in terms of F12M earnings. But this is

creating new risks. Tech is, after all, highly cyclical. And although our analysts believe evolving AI

requirements will result in this cyclicality weakening, any reversal of the cycle will create a material

headwind to regional equities. Furthermore, the strength of the tech super-cycle is disguising

earnings weakness across the more domestically orientated consumption-focused sectors across

the region. While the tech sector is seeing uplifts to forward earnings, the non-tech domestically-