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A.M. Notes
May 19, 2026
Economic Research
NORTH AMERICA — PRISCILLA THIAGAMOORTHY
Douglas Porter Chief Economist
U.S. equity futures are lower this morning, while Treasury yields edged up, with the 10- douglas.porter@bmo.com (416) 359-4887
year at 4.6%. Oil prices remained elevated, despite some overnight easing after Jennifer Lee Senior Economist
President Trump said he’s holding off on Iran attacks. jennifer.lee@bmo.com (416) 359-4092
"TrumpSaysPlannedIranAttackOnHoldAfterGulfLeaders’Request:PresidentTrump Priscilla Thiagamoorthy Senior Economist
saidhewouldholdoffonaplannedU.S.attackonIranattherequestofGulfleadersto priscilla.thiagamoorthy@bmo.com (416) 359-6229
makeroomfornegotiationswithTehranoveraprospectivedealtoendthewar.” Wall Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Street Journal
Inflation concerns remain front and centre. Last week’s U.S. consumer inflation report
came in hotter than expected, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain
persistent. We pushed back our Fed rate cut forecasts by three months… now expecting
a 25-bp cut in December and March.
Today, we’ll get Canada’s CPI report for April. As our BenjaminReitzes noted: “Energy
pricescontinuedtoclimbinApril,buildingonthepriormonth’ssurge,amidongoing
transportationdisruptionsduetothewarinIran.Thefederalgovernment’sfive-month
gasexcisetaxholidayprovidedlittlereprieve(thoughitonlystartedonthe20th).April
isaseasonallystrongmonthforCanadianCPIanyway,rising0.5%m/mormore(not
seasonallyadjusted)infourofthepastfiveyears.Indeed,beyondenergy,household
operations/furnishingsandhealth/personalcaretendtoseestronggainsinthemonth
aswell.There’salsopotentialupsiderisktoairfaresasairlinespassalonghigherfuel
costs.Onesectorthat’spullingtheotherwayishousing,restrainedbyfallinginterest
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