Here Comes the Guide and It Will Be Dressed Like a Rockstar

研报英文原文证据摘录

Here Comes the Guide and It Will Be Dressed Like a Rockstar

Take-Two Interactive Software - Block Summary Model

Income Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E

Bookings 5,648.0 6,684.9 10,520.3

Adjusted Operating Income 604 921 2,175 Valuation

Adjusted Operating Income Margin 10.7% 13.8% 20.7% Our $280 target price implies ~23x our 2027E adjusted

operating income estimate of $2.2B and ~4.5x our 2027E Net Income (non-GAAP) 438 686 1,703

bookings estimate of $11 billion.

Cash Flow Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E

Cash Flow From Operations (45) 448 1,550 Upside Scenario $350.00

Our upside scenario implies outperformance relative to our

Cash Flow From Investments (184) (394) (203)

GTA VI estimates, driven by higher unit sales and, more

Cash Provided From Financing 651 644 (3) importantly, robust profit contributions from GTA Online.

Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E This live service generates high-margin subscription and

microtransaction revenue on an ongoing basis. Upside

Total Current Assets 2,816 3,846 5,807

outcomes could relate to strategic options for Take-Two

Total Assets 9,180 9,996 12,003 following Microsoft's acquisition of Activision.

Total Current Liabilities 3,615 3,071 3,184

Downside Scenario $175.00

Total Liabilities 7,043 6,352 6,463 Our downside scenario for Take-Two centers on game

Total Debt 3,661 3,788 5,593 delays, poor reviews of GTA VI, and potential global tariffs

that could affect sales of new console hardware.

Total Liabilities and Share Equity 9,180 9,666 12,003

Investors have been known to “sell the news” ahead of big

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports game launches like GTA VI.

in USD

-28% +16% +45%

Downside Current Target Upside

Scenario Price Price Scenario

175.00 242.16 280.00 350.00

Key Catalysts

Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to be released on