Model Mods - BILL, FLYW, GPN - 3 TruTweaks

研报英文原文证据摘录

Model Mods - BILL, FLYW, GPN - 3 TruTweaks

: +2.6%), mainly

reflecting stronger trends in the education and travel verticals. We are also making

refinements to our gross margin assumptions by incorporating impacts from ramping

payment processing relationships. Our adj. EBITDA estimates are higher on a full-year

basis (2026E: +0.7%, 2027E: +2.6%), however our 2Q26E estimate is much lower

(-12.5%) which reflects reinvestment as well as a difficult year-ago OpEx comparison.

Additional considerations include Flywire’s direct share repurchase agreement in May,

refreshed market data (e.g. FX, interest rates), and updated assumptions for student

visa issuance. Due to the higher 2027 estimates we are increasing our price target to

$18 ($16 previously). The new price target reflects a 2027 P/E multiple of 26x, which

compares to our estimated 2028 EPS growth of +37% YoY (i.e. a ~0.7x growth-adjusted

multiple).

Global Payments (GPN, Hold). Following its 1Q26 earnings release (see our take

here), we are updating our Global Payments model. We are modestly reducing our top-

line expectations (adj. revenue – 2Q26E: -0.8%, 2026E: -0.1%, 2027E: -0.2%) reflecting

headwinds associated with the Middle East conflict as well as lower tax payment volume

(primarily 2Q weighted). This is mostly offset in 2H26E, reflecting strong commentary

on sales momentum with 1Q results. This results in lower expectations for adj. EBIT,

however our full-year adj. EPS estimates are heading slightly higher (adj. EPS – 2Q26E:

-2.3%, 2026E +1.4%, 2027E +0.8%) due to a lower share count as we incorporate the

accelerated share repurchase announced with 1Q results. Additional considerations

include refreshed market data (FX, interest rates, repurchase pricing) as well as