Upgrade: Capital return surprise supports upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Upgrade: Capital return surprise supports upside

Macquarie Equity Research

21 May 2026

Financial Services

Tidlor ASEAN

Chattra

ChaipunviriyapornKey Points

• Dividend and share buyback surprise as 40% dividend payout and

Bt2.4bn buyback reinforce capital return outlook. TIDLOR TB Outperform

(at 20 May 2026) THB16.10• 2026E dividend yield peaks at ~9%, well above banks, and normalises to Price 12-month target THB19.00 ~5% as payout resets to ~40% from 2027E.

12-month TSR (%) 25.6

• Upgrade to Outperform, from Underperform; lift TP 41%. Better capital Volatility Index High

management and stronger-than-peer credit quality underpin valuation Market Cap (Local) (m) 46,907

re-rating. Market Cap (USD) (m) 1,437

Free Float (%) 32

30-day avg turnover (USD) (m) 14.6

• Positive surprise from dividend and buyback announcement. TIDLOR Investment Fundamentals announced a Bt0.69/share dividend, implying a 40% payout from FY25

Year end 31 Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

earnings (vs. our 25% forecast) and a 4.3% yield. The company also Revenue (m) 23,410 24,849 25,884 26,899

unveiled a Bt2.4bn share repurchase program, covering 123mn shares Revenue growth (%) 5.6 6.1 4.2 3.9

(4.2% of total shares) at an implied buyback price of Bt19.50/share. The EBIT (m) 6,209 7,400 7,643 7,895

program will run from 28 May to 27 November 2026. EBIT growth (%) 17.6 19.2 3.3 3.3 Reported profit (m) 4,933 5,908 6,102 6,304

• Elevated 2026E yield, normalising thereafter. We expect the Bt0.69 Adjusted profit (m) 4,933 5,908 6,102 6,304

interim DPS to be followed by a Bt0.80 final dividend post FY26 results, EPS rep [THB] 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2

EPS rep growth (%) 18.5 19.8 3.3 3.3

bringing total 2026E DPS to Bt1.5/share (~9% yield). This exceeds ROA (%) 5.7 6.5 6.4 6.3

the 6.0–7.5% dividend yield range for Thai banks.