Knorr-Bremse: Likely overestimated growth & pricey valuation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Knorr-Bremse: Likely overestimated growth & pricey valuation

Equity Research

European Capital Goods

22 May 2026

Knorr-Bremse

Likely overestimated growth &

pricey valuation

KBX is a solid industrial business, but we believe market KBX.DE/KBX GY UNDERWEIGHT

overestimates growth & overvalues the stock. We see mixed Unchanged

end market outlook, cuts to capex/R&D & HSD downside to European Capital Goods UnchangedNEUTRAL

28E cons sales. Implied valuation of Rail (high-20s PE) leaves Price Target EUR 90.00

better value elsewhere in the sector, UW with E90/sh PT. Unchanged

Price (20-May-26) EUR 101.90

Potential Upside/Downside -11.7%

The market potentially overestimates and overvalues growth: KBX is a solid industrial Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

franchise with consistent profitability and cash flow generation. Margin-centric strategy (both

organic and not) has led to steadily improving profitability but shows signs of sacrificing growth Market Cap (EUR mn) 16426

at the same time (R&D and capex going down, 2026E sales at 2023 level). We see mixed end Shares Outstanding (mn) 161.20

market momentum: strong recovery in US truck market in 2026 (but limited pre-buy) likely Free Float (%) 41.01

followed by limited growth in '27, clear macro risks to European truck demand, steady MSD 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.2

replacement-driven growth in European Rail (with key customers facing execution issues), and Dividend Yield (%) 1.86

slowed dynamic in China (following a solid 2025). Altogether, we see HSD risk to 2028 consensus Return on Equity TTM (%) 17.19

sales, with a similar gap at the EBIT level. We also believe that high-20s PE multiples implied for Current BVPS (EUR) 20.40