China Railway Sector "China railway traffic monthly: Passenger and freig..."

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China Railway Sector "China railway traffic monthly: Passenger and freig..."

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China Railway Sector Equities

ChinaChina railway traffic monthly: Passenger and

freight volume growth remained solid Industrial

Bruce Mi

Analyst

bruce.mi@ubs.com

China's railway passenger volume rose 11% YoY in April +86-21-3866 8851

China's railway passenger volume increased 11% in April versus 12% in March, Robin Xu

according to the Ministry of Transport. Based on UBS Evidence Lab's China Railway Analyst

Traffic Monitor (> Access Dataset): 1) the nationwide average daily number of rail S1460511010012

services is up 7% YTD and 5% YoY MTD. The number of high-speed rail (HSR) services bin.xu@ubs.com

also increased 7% YTD. 2) Among major routes, the MTD average daily number of HSR +86-21-3866 8872

services increased 2% YoY for Beijing-Shanghai, 9% YoY for Guangzhou-Shenzhen, Zed Sheng

and 2% YoY for Beijing-Xi'an, but flat YoY for Shanghai-Xi'an. We believe China's Analyst

railway passenger volumes will likely continue to benefit from rising energy prices, by S1460525030003

attracting price-sensitive travellers from aviation amid rising domestic airfares. zed.sheng@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8730

HSR gaining market share on BJ-SH route; no increase in realised fares yet Phyllis Wang

Based on Flight Master data and our estimates, high-speed rail's market share versus Analyst

aviation in terms of traveller volumes rose to 43% in May from 38% in March. The S1460517100001

average sold-out rate of Beijing-Shanghai HSR's second-class tickets in the past four phyllis.wang@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8964

weeks was down YoY, but improved sequentially. Fares for BJ-SH HSR second class/first

class/business class increased 2%/1%/2% YoY MTD.