European Gas "Storage trajectory in focus" Kim

研报英文原文证据摘录

European Gas "Storage trajectory in focus" Kim

eria combined covering another 30% (Figure 17OfsetingGulfLNGflows(bcm)). Taken Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.comtogether with softer demand, the market has absorbed a meaningful share of the supply

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loss. We would expect the remaining supply gap to widen if summer buying picks up,

due to limited new project additions and supply upside over the season. Mark Freshney

Analyst

mark.freshney@ubs.comInjection pace softens; 78% full ahead of next winter

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EU storage stands at 37% as of 20 May, 9% below last year and 14% lower than the

Wanda Serwinowska, CFAseasonal average. Slower LNG imports are feeding through to the pace of injection. May

MtD cumulative net injections stand at 4.2bcm, 25% below both last year's and the

wanda.serwinowska@ubs.com

seasonal average. The most recent week was even weaker at 1.2bcm, vs. 1.8bcm last +44-20-7568 3980

year and roughly half the norm, raising concerns regarding the storage trajectory. Our

base case now shows EU storage reaching 78% full by end-October, 200bps lower than

previously. This compares with 71% full implied by the average injection pace observed

since 1 April, well below the lowest levels of 77% recorded over the past decade, as the

cumulative injections have been around 30% below the seasonally required pace.

European piped gas imports down 1%; limited upside

Europe's piped gas imports fell slightly by 1% y/y to 14bcm in April. Norwegian imports

were down 4% y/y due to seasonal maintenance, while higher imports from Algeria

(+10% y/y) and Russia (+12%) partly offset the decline. We expect European piped gas

imports to rise by ~3% this year, though pipeline capacity and upstream constraints may

limit further gains.