Americas Sustainability "Decarb Ideas Refresh Post 1Q'26 Earnings" Gershuni

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Americas Sustainability "Decarb Ideas Refresh Post 1Q'26 Earnings" Gershuni

r Power Capex Environmental

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Dispatch Curve in our note "How could half a trillion dollars of Power Capex be spent by GovernanceM'30?"

What did we learn from Earnings? Part 1, High Level Energy Independence over

Energy Security

When we looked back at the 1Q'25 earnings season and compared the progression over

the last three earnings seasons, two things stood out: AI implementation is ramping (see

below) and Middle East was front and centre. With regards to the Middle East, plenty of

worry and nervousness, and while inventories have headed lower they have not been

exhausted. It does feel that companies are preparing a little more for the worst than

policy makers, but not by a large amount. Outside of limited cases like airlines

rationalizing schedules (probably was a catalyst for what needed to be done regardless),

the tone felt more like an acknowledgment with few concrete long-term actions

underway toward insulation of supply chains. Energy exposed names seemed to be

more likely to have announced concrete measures with comments around pipeline

expansions, increased utilization of assets and bringing forward capacity additions. In

fact most of the tidbits were really from those expecting to see opportunities in their

business. CARR noted heat pump demand increasing in Europe, Refiners noting

Renewable Diesel becoming more economical, and in the data we're seeing a spike in

searches for "EV'"s and some positive EV selling trends. What we are not seeing is

widespread evidence of capacity rationalization. Maybe our expectations were too high

or it's too early to have expected concrete details, in some respect holistically we wonder