Dollar Tree "Helium Happens - Is This Tree Grounded?" (Buy) Lasser

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Dollar Tree "Helium Happens - Is This Tree Grounded?" (Buy) Lasser

could be triggered by signs that the downward earnings revision cycle is moving

to a positive cycle.

As such, we think the stock still does not fully reflect this retailer's opportunity both near

as well as longer term. As DLTR continues to generate consistent performance, it should

drive the stock's price higher.

How will elevated fuel prices impact Dollar Tree?

Elevated gas prices could impact DLTR in two ways. One, it could lead to reduced

disposable income for discretionary purchases, especially for lower income households.

Two, it's likely to increase its operating expenses. Historically, a $1.00 change in the price

of diesel fuel has represented a roughly $63 mm annualized headwind to the company's

costs (based on the commentary from its 1Q'22 earnings conference call). Looking

further back, the company previously estimated that a $1.00 increase in diesel for a full

year would result in an approximate $0.07 to $0.08 hit to EPS (based on its commentary

from 3Q'11 earnings conference call).

According to EIA, average regular gasoline price per gallon was $3.68 in months

corresponding to DLTR's 1Q'26. This is $0.43 per gallon more than in 1Q'25 and $0.64

per gallon more than in 4Q'25. Further, using EIA estimates for the remainder of the

year, we can see that the average price per gallon will increase further in 2Q'26 to $4.21

before it starts to moderate to an average price of $3.93 in 3Q and $3.63 in 4Q.

Figure 1: U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) and changes

U. S. A ll G ra de s Al l Fo rm ul at

ions Reta il Ga solin e Pri ces ( Doll ars pe r Gall on) an d chan ges

Source: EIA, UBS estimates. Average prices per gallon for 2Q-4Q 2026 are estimates.