Bristol-Myers Squibb: Admilparant Ph3 is risky, but P&L upside hard to ignore

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Bristol-Myers Squibb: Admilparant Ph3 is risky, but P&L upside hard to ignore

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Bristol-Myers Squibb

Admilparant Ph3 is risky, but P&L upside

hard to ignore

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 67.00 USD | Price: 58.88 USD

Ph2 profile looks strong, if pivotal can be navigated 21 May 2026

This report represents the second installment in our deep-dives highlighting BMY’s most Equity

consequential catalysts from late-stage pipeline – we focus on ALOFT-IPF readout for

admilparant (4Q26), which we view as one of two most impactful readouts on significant Jason M. Gerberry

peak sales potential. In Ph2, admilparant exhibited profile that could make the drug Research Analyst

BofAS

highly competitive in large IPF market, but we concede Ph3 is high risk. We reiterate Buy +1 646 743 0180

with $67 PO (~16% upside) into ALOFT-IPF. BMY screens cheap on forward P/E and we jason.gerberry@bofa.com

believe market appropriately discounts IPF, thus we like risk/reward into data. Chi M. Fong

Research Analyst

Admilparant, if positive, can move the needle BofAS+1 646 855 5264

We see admilparant as potential $4–8bn peak sales vs consensus <$2bn, and meaningful chi.fong@bofa.com

NPV leverage because it is wholly owned. We model ~$4bn nominal peak (~$2bn risk- Richard Wagner >>

adjusted) in an IPF category that has room to grow with emergence of polypharmacy + MLI (UK)

new, better-tolerated drugs vs. incumbent anti-fibrotics (tolerability challenges); upside +44 20 7995 9925

richard.wagneriii@bofa.com

>$4bn peak is contingent on read to PPF. Relative to our risk-adj peak sales, every

Dina Ramadane

+$2bn of revenue upside is 60-65c EPS contribution (+10% on 2026). Research Analyst

ALOFT-IPF risky, but Street already cautious BofAS+1 646 556 0492

dina.ramadane@bofa.com