Greater China Auto Parts (H/A): Tesla FSD China rollout: a key sentiment booster for ADAS & Tesla supply chain

研报英文原文证据摘录

Greater China Auto Parts (H/A): Tesla FSD China rollout: a key sentiment booster for ADAS & Tesla supply chain

Upside risks: Securing orders from potential Chinese OEMs, continuous share gain from

other suppliers in EPS and ADAS-EPS, and margin expansion by improving efficiency and

operations.

Ningbo Tuopu (XNCGF)

We derive our PO of RMB72 with SOTP valuation to reflect both (1) Tuopu's auto/EV

components business, (2) Tuopu's likely profit contribution from humanoid robot

components in the future.

Auto/EV components: we apply 25x P/E to 2026E net profit from auto/EV components.

Our target PER of 25x is based on 0.25SD above the stock's historical 5-year average

one-year forward PER. We adopt the historical 5-year average, given it captures both the

up and downcycle of the auto and auto parts industry. We use its 0.25SD above its

historical average to reflect improving fundamentals and overseas market as new

growth drivers.

Humanoid robot components: Our target PER of 50x P/E mainly is supported by (1)

global humanoid robot shipments to post 127% CAGR in 2025-30E and 53% CAGR in

2030-35E, (2) other leading Chinese industrial companies, were trading at 50x (0.5-0.6x

PEG) in the fast-growing stage. We discount 2030E implied value with 11.5% WACC.

Risks: raw material cost hikes, EV price cuts, competition, China EV market growth

deceleration, inability to maintain a high capacity utilization rate.

RoboSense (RBSTF)

Our PO of HKD42 is based on average from DCF and EV/sales valuation. RoboSense has

relatively short operation history in a relatively innovated industry - LiDAR, and the

company is still loss making. We believe the DCF valuation methodology is appropriate

given this reflects the company's long-term cash flow generation. Meanwhile, we see the